Posted by: shannynmoore | November 7, 2008

Alaska On EBay? Election Numbers Update

You don’t have to be a coroner to smell a corpse. Alaska needs an election autopsy STAT. The stench persists. When Democracy’s infected, there is nothing benign about it. I know Alaska. I know we keep voting for self-professed corrupt bastards. I know it took the FBI to start scrubbing the corruption out of our state legislature. I sat through the trials of men who had sold their votes cheap to big oil. My candidate rarely wins, but I always vote. That said, Alaska’s average presidential election voter turnout is 66.7%. With the exception of Bush-Gore and Bush-Kerry we have known who the President Elect was BEFORE OUR POLLS CLOSE. You betcha, and we still vote in healthy numbers.

Nationally, I get it. You have Palin Fatigue Syndrome. You’re starting to think, “You know that 49th State? Let’s put it on ebay.” Wait. Remember the dream of a filibuster proof majority? It’s not an Ambian haze; we’re three contested seats away! Take a deep breath, hold your nose, and help Alaska, Georgia, and Minnesota find their votes. This is not a tin foil hat activity; just math and uncommon sense. This is not a matter to litigate post mortem; Democracy requires vigilance.  Alaskans have been bitching about election fraud for years and there are law suits to prove it. The Republicans whining about ACORN seemed like Jeffery Dahmer complaining about a burntdiebold hamburger.

In Alaska, the last two presidential elections were decided by the exact same margin of victory; 61-36. The only difference was the number of votes; more Alaskans voted for George W Bush-Dick Cheney in 2004 than Sarah Palin-John McCain in 2008. Initially there were only 49,000 votes left to count. Now there are 74,527 outstanding ballots. Curious. Even still-this year’s turnout is still smaller than the election of 2004 by 6.1%. Hhhhhhmmmm. I would have to smoke more than Salmon to believe that Alaska, with Palin on the ballot, decided to sit this one out.

Relevant Facts:

1) The 1,700% increase in the Democratic Caucus in

2) 20,991 newly registered voters

3) The three largest political rallies in Alaska’s history were held in September and October.

4) Early voters set an historic record. 25,000 Alaskans showed up to vote early in 2008 vs 11,000 in 2004; an increase of 127%!

5) 12.4% more Alaskans showed up for the August primary as compared to four years ago, before the Palin nomination.

6) The average Presidential Election turnout since we started keeping records is 66.7%. The 2008 Alaska voter turnout (including the uncounted 74,527 ballots) is 60.1%. THE LOWEST GENERAL TURN OUT save Clinton/Dole 96’.

7) The Lower 49 had a record voter turnout this year.

8.) 80% of Alaskans approved of Sarah Palin just two months ago.

9) Anchorage Daily News front page on Election Day: Personnel Board Exonerates Palin She flew home to vote with Alaskans.

10) An unprecedented 16 point come-from-behind lead for Congressman Don Young over challenger Ethan Berkowitz.

11) Ted Stevens trial coverage and 7 felony convictions.

12) Don Young under investigation; spending over $1Million on legal fees this year.

So, with that…sorry, I forgot to give you a clothespin. I have more faith in my friends and neighbors. I know they don’t always agree with me, but they do vote. America, before you break up with Alaska, crown us with El Presidente Palin. Let the “Drill, Baby, Drill” chant become our new anthem. Know this: We need you. You need us. Progressive Alaskans are an endangered species, and should be treated as such. I am fighting for what seem to be Alaskan votes; but they are American votes. You need them.

 

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Responses

  1. THANK YOU for gathering and sharing this information. Having watched the Alaska Senate race from afar (Pennsylvania) on a website that gathers polls, I noted a clear and consistent Begich lead since April and expected him to win easily. So I was stunned that the Honorable Felon was ahead. I was chalking it up to a guess that Alaska’s Republicans came home to the party to save Congress from becoming too Democratic. But now, thanks to you, I know the real problem. May the truth be told as this story unfolds! My county has had its own voting scandals. A friend tells the story how an old Republican from Shenandoah, Pa., bragged to him how they had a system whereby the ballot box had a hole in the bottom, and the box in turn stood over a hole in the floor. As the ballots entered the box, they fell through to the room below, where the ballots were “corrected.” These voting fraud systems undermine the heart of our democracy. They should be treated as we would treason. I suspect that Alaska has more felons to find.

  2. I am not from Alaska nor do I understand the culture way up there. However, I do agree that something does not seem right. It’s already proven that both Young and Stevens are crooks so what’s a couple of more charges to steal an election.

  3. I agree that something just doesn’t seem right. The numbers just don’t add up. Are there any investigations into irregularities?

  4. [...] Palin, Ted Stevens, voter turnout « Mark Begich: “This Race is not over.” Alaska On EBay? Election Numbers Update [...]

  5. when you go to vote they cross off your name on the list, which means there is a record of how many people actually showed up to vote. there needs to be a comparison made of that number and diebold count, because i agree, something really stinks.

  6. Over 30 years of watching my fellow Alaskans and one principle overrides all others. They will always confound you with what they will do. And the outcome frequently looks stupid. Go back and look at the news reports election day afternoon – the polling places where empty. The people who could have made a difference stayed home and drank beer.

  7. The sooner we start contesting questionable elections the better. If any state investigators could find hard evidence of election fraud and ulitmately convict the individuals responsible, it could spur two important developments; voting tamperers would be much less willing to participate in the fraud with recent felony convictions and jail time, and sweeping voter reform across the nation.

    Alaska is the perfect opportunity.

    With an open and honest election system, Republicans would have a very hard time ever getting elected again. The party of hate, fear, bigotry and corporate welfare does not appeal to a majority of Americans. Repubs figured this out a long time ago and thats why they work to suppress the vote.

  8. If you know they aren’t counting, why waste your time voting?

  9. Shannyn,

    You’re onto something here. The numbers make it appear that the people who rigged the ballot counting machines are inexperienced at it and don’t know how to cover their tracks.

    There’s no need to reinvent the wheel. Dr. Bob Fitrakis could probably provide you with a lot of info on how to get to the truth with this stuff. He’s here in Columbus OH. Email me and I’ll give you his email address.

    Love your work and hearing you on Elliot’s show. You are a true patriot :-)

  10. Keep at it Shannyn! I’ve read your reports on national blogs and seen you speak on the TV news about this. People are starting to listen. I noticed this Tuesday night. You can’t tell me that at 7pm when the race was called for Obama that people waiting to vote just turned and went home. And that it was mostly the newly registered democrat voters that decided not to use their new vote. The Presidential election is almost always called before our polls close in Alaska but people stay to vote for the local , senate and congressional races because they wont be called until the polls close. I think we need to get people like Rick Rydel on KENI to blame the democrats for stealing votes to make the Stevens and Young races so close. They just didn’t steal enough. If blowhards like Rydel and Edie Burk thought the democrats were getting away with something and Stevens and Young could have won by a landslide again, they would be screaming to high heaven about it. If this isn’t a republican fix why was Young so confident he would win when he was down so far in the polls.

  11. Shannyn,

    I was just thinking—
    How wonderful it would be if you could make a return appearence on Countdown or go on Maddow with this stuff.

    It’s time that they start dealing with the Election Integrity issue.

    btw, Ohio’s voter turnout was down too (front page story today):

    http://www.dispatchpolitics.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/11/07/copy/turnout.ART_ART_11-07-08_A1_4GBQO6M.html?adsec=politics&sid=101

    The only true answer is for the people to take back the vote counting by hand at the precinct level with paper ballots. The results of machine counted ballots can not be trusted or verified. The media should not report the results as fact as their is no verification.

  12. Shannyn,
    Keep up the good work. I certainly do not have Palin Fatigue Syndrome….If she does run in 2012, the rest of the country needs to know that she is not your average working mother!!

  13. Shannyn,
    Nick Silver over at FiveThirtyEight is wondering what’s going on in Alaska as well. Here’s a link to his post from November 5:

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/what-in-hell-happened-in-alaska.html

  14. Shannyn,

    This is an unbelievable story!! One’s worst fears about our democracy and our society becoming reality – every single person in the country should be rivetted to this story and demanding answers. In the big picture, it is even more important than Iraq war or an impending economic meltdown.

    With all the news stories over the past two years describing the falibility of electronic voting technology, I am surprised and relieved that the apparent fraud you have described in Alaska wasnt perpetrated on a national level to defeat Obama.

    Keep up the brilliant effort, Shannyn, you are becoming a hero of democracy in my eyes!!!

  15. Keep looking into the possible official hanky panky with the vote. It’s worth following up.

    However… I am quite convinced that this race was, for many, all about Obama. Begich and Berkowitz were an afterthought… or no thought at all.

    The Republicans got out the vote better than us because lots of Dems and Dem-leaning independents just didn’t bother to vote. And once an Obama win became a foregone conclusion, right when lots of voters were getting home from work, starting dinner, dealing with the kids (and glued to their TV sets watching the Lower 48 results), they just didn’t bother to show up to make a difference in the Senate and House elections.

    The turnout, let’s face it, sucked.

  16. All those new Democrats registered at the amazing caucus didn’t amount to much after all, did they. After all, honestly, the Democratic primaries were the only real chance an Alaska Democrat had of influencing a presidential election.

  17. Anybody know how many RNC operatives were sent to Alaska to deal with the pre-election Troopergate situation? Betcha they had something to do with this…

  18. Ms. Moore,
    I’m writing from the other end of the country-Vermont – but just as concerned with voting fraud and political corruption as (some) Alaskans. With all the celebrating of an Obama victory going on right now and the onset of planning for the huge job ahead, it may be difficult to get people to direct their attention and efforts towards uncovering what appears to be yet another instance of folks there cooking the books. I hope you’ll stay on the job, though. It could have ramifications for AK elections for generations to come.
    Good luck.

  19. So let’s say you live in, say, Texas. On the surface, this issue appears not to concern you, since you don’t vote in Alaska, and neither Ted Stevens nor Don Young represent you, your district, or your state.

    But it does affect you, because Ted Stevens and Don Young are both responsible for writing and voting on laws that affect the whole country, and have both abused their power to do it.

    My question, then, is this:
    What can you do about this if you don’t actually live or vote in Alaska? Do I simply have to sit and wait? Can I write a letter to someone? What can I do to ensure that Alaska’s corrupt election process gets investigated, and doesn’t hurt citizens in the lower 48?

  20. Postec 11-6-08 http://www.demookie.com
    Dear Editor,
    “Is there a problem? Considering the registered voter count 2,184,092
    as of November 1, 2008 with a net gain of 162,607 voters since January
    15, 2008, and then comparing the report of actual votes cast Nov. 4th,
    2008 to actual votes cast in the 2004 presidential election, there is
    suspect (State Election Board).

    This difference is only 1621 in the numbers of voters casting ballots
    in 2004 from 2008. Somehow we are amiss 721,955 Oklahoma voters! Can
    anyone explain this?”

    But there is more…something I missed
    The disparity in numbers of Oklahomans who voted for President and US Senate and other state wide offices.

    JIM INHOFE………..REP….763,102…56.68%
    ANDREW RICE……….DEM….527,569…39.19%
    STEPHEN P. WALLACE…IND…. 55,683….4.14%

    Total 1,346,354

    JOHN McCAIN……….REP….959,808…65.64%
    BARACK OBAMA………DEM….502,329…34.36%

    Total 1,462,137

    It is unusual that 115,783 voted for President but didn’t vote for US Senator.
    If that’s the case then either votes for US Senate weren’t counted, were unreadable, or left blank.

    I have addressed with the Oklahoma Election Board. It is amazing, with the increased voter turn out…I thought was happening with absentte ballots, early voting lines, organized walks of up to 300+ to the polls in OK City on the 3rd.

    I recieved a befuddled response to my first question and presentation of the similar numbers and have just sent the second part referring to the US Senate race.

    Any suggestions…please notify me!

  21. The trial also hurt Begich and voter turnout. There was the misconduct of the prosecution, the anarchy among the jury, and the fact that the only juror whose opinion made the newspaper was the one who lied about the death of her father so she could go to the Breeder’s Cup horserace. Her opinion was that Stevens was guilty, but no more so than most politicians. Lots of Alaskans felt the same way, and some who decided not to vote for Stevens decided not to vote at all. On the morning of November 4, none of the people I talked to had confidence in the polls–they were all very worried.
    The race between Knowles vs. Murkowski, and in 2004 had more passion and interest among voters in my recollection, and there were some voter initiatives to also get people to the polls. Palin and Obama supporters both knew their vote wouldn’t make a difference. Compare the difference in enthusiasm between the primaries and general election.
    When all the absentee votes are in, there may be close to the same number of votes cast as 4 years ago. I would like to blame the Division of Elections, but I fear that the real problem is that Alaska is a state with a population that mostly thinks like Wyoming, Idaho, and Oklahoma.

  22. Alaska may be heading into its long dark night but it only lasts a few months.

    America’s 8 years long dark night has finally found its dawn.

    Perhaps shinning a light on the election corruption in all 50 states will finally compel us to do something about it.

  23. I am monitoring your site (and mudflats and 538) to see how this turns out. I wish I knew what concrete actions a girl from Texas could do to help you all out.

    I feel like the shame of providing GWBush to the nation is finally subsiding for us in Texas, glad you didn’t have to take the mantle with Palin.

  24. The numbers do not add up, and thank you for the coverage of this. I really hate to see any crooks return to D.C. It gets very discouraging. Palin should at least be fined, for all her family disasters. The state should not have to keep bearing the brunt, of all the abuse of funds.

  25. I’m confused. In my state you can’t even vote if you have a felony conviction. In Alaska, someone can hold office with a felony???? Is that true?

  26. [...] The full article, including reactions from pollsters, the Democratic and Republican parties, the Division of Elections, and progressive blogger, Shannyn Moore. [...]

  27. This is too important to have been written so cleverly I cannot understand it – nor can other, well-read folks. Please decipher.

    Are you simply saying more Alaskans voted in ’08 than in ’04, yet the vote totals for the winners and losers do not add up? If so, please report the totals, then and now, maybe, or something straight up.

    I have heard Stevens polled 20% down pre-election election day, yet won. Is that from you? (Couldn’t get that far in your post on Huffington.) If so, why haven’t the nat’l (maintream) press picked this up?

  28. I think people are misinterpreting the published results on the Alaska SoS website. The site only has published the actual “cast and counted” votes. These are the numbers -erroneously- being contrasted to the 2004 election. Apparently there are yet another 81,000 early/absentee ballots yet to be added to those numbers. This election will, in fact, ultimately set a record for turnout in Alaska.

    But we can look at the “cast and counted” early votes and I think we’ll easily see why Begich and Berkowitz will ultimately prevail.

    I actually toiled through the actual “early vote/absentee” data spread sheets for the different Alaska districts and State Assembly areas.

    In the walk-up vote count Begich leads in the following:
    District 1 [ Area 2 (58%), 3 (71.5%), 4 (61%), 5 (58%), 35 (53%), 36 (56%)];
    District II [ 18 (54%), 19 (52%) 20 (56%), 21 (52%), 22 (59%), 23 (61.5%), 25 (56%), 26 (54%), and tied in 24 and 29];
    District III [ Area 8 (57%) and tied in 6,7,9.10]; District IV [37 (52%), 38 (68%), 39 (60.5%) and 40 (61%)].

    Historically several of these are traditional red areas -of course Stevens won his previous Senatorial race with 70% of the vote…approaching 100% in some areas. So Begich has made major inroads.

    Stevens is ahead in the election day walk-up vote in the following:
    District I [Area 1 (56%), 33 (61%) 34 (63%)
    District II [17 (58%); 27 (54.5%), 28 (56.3%), 30 (53%), 31 (57.6%), 32 (53%)]
    Mat-Su 13-16 averaging 63.5%
    District III [11 (63%), 12 (57%);

    Some of the early ballots have been counted and this is where the real advantage goes to Begich. Begich is polling between +5% to + 18% better than his walk-up polls, with no counted precinct showing a lower number than his election day numbers.

    In District I only two precincts (3,4) had some early/absentee ballots counted and these were 77% (+6% over election day), and 70% (+9% over election day) for Begich. And the “unrecorded” pro-Begich districts out-number the uncounted Stevens areas.

    Although he badly lost on election day in this area, Begich’s Mat-Su numbers showed an average of +7% for early voting [41-45% in this heavily Republican district]. So even though he never gains a majority there he cuts into Steven’s substantial leads in the walk-up election day votes. This also suggests that Begich will either win or suppress the absentee/early votes in areas where Stevens won the walkup vote on election day.

    District II precincts were about 12% higher for early votes than Begich’s walk-up numbers (with all above 51% and averaging about 63%).

    District III: Begich’s early voting numbers (61%) were averaging almost 14% higher than his walk-up vote averages.

    In District IV only one set of early voting number was available. Area 4 showed Begich with a 64%-36% advantage over Stevens. That was about 4% higher than his walk-up vote % on election day.

    Given the above, if the pattern continues for early voting/absentee Begich should win easily…unless some bias is present in the “problem votes” towards Stevens.

    I suspect that the same will be true with the Don Edwards-Berkowitz race as well.

    Clearly, if Begich and Berkowitz lose after tabulating all the absentee/early votes still outstanding…then a huge stink will need to be raised…since the above data indicates it’s really impossible that the remaining ballots would go the opposite direction.

  29. I, too, have confidence that the early votes will trend to Begich and Berkowitz. I did notice that of the three polling places I checked on election day, none of them had lines to speak of, and one of them was empty except for workers when I looked in at about 6:00 PM. I was really surprised. At one of the other polling spots, workers said they had been somewhat busier than usual.
    One other thing that seems odd is the map printed in ADN yesterday. It shows Anchorage with a clean split of precincts going for Begich and those going for Stevens. All the neighborhoods in the north part of town were won for Begich, everything in south Anchorage won for Stevens. Such a clean split with no precincts ‘mixing it up’ seems puzzling. And, though I had heard that the polls prediciting a Begich win might be off because of rural Alaska – ALL of rural Alaska is a nice shade of BLUE.
    Thank you for pursuing this question, some of us don’t have as much time to do the indepth work on a steady basis and appreciate your persistence!!!

  30. I’m not impressed by your enthusiasm for a filibuster-proof majority. Our government is supposed to have checks and balances and what you are wishing for denies voice to millions of Americans. Your party won the election. You’ve got power but apparently that’s not enough for you. Why do you need to be able to overrule people’s objections as well?

  31. Correcting link address – thanks!

  32. Where can we find some evidence of the timing of election returns from different districts? The depressed turnout is not especially probative in light of the early concession, and since both Republican candidates were under investigation or conviction, it is easy to understand why the polls were wrong. But I have read elsewhere that the Presidential margin never wavered by more than .3%. That seems extremely fishy, but I dont know what source can verify the claim. Once that is done, the fluctuations in election margins can be statistically compared to other states and past Alaskan elections.

    Anyone considering a FOIA?

  33. fireweednectar- Isn’t the real issue that the will of the people in the election gets established? There is nothing in the Constitution regarding a “rule” that prevents members of one party controlling both Houses of Congress and the Executive branch. In fact, it’s happened several times in history…usually at a time of “national crisis”. Perhaps the voters then wanted a unified government that did not have intransigent elements that would filibuster the necessary policy objectives.

    Many Republicans are right now asserting that they need to use the filibuster to make the new President “fail”. That’s a political power issue…it has nothing to do with getting us out of this economic and natural security crisis (two wars and weakened alliances) that the Bush Presidency has placed our nation into.

  34. I’ve done some more number-crunching. Based upon the already submitted and counted absentee votes/Early votes from each Region and District one can estimate the % of the uncounted absentee/Early votes that remain uncounted. As noted above Begich does significantly better in his early voting % than walk-up results. So by plugging in these District percentages into the remaining outstanding votes from each district Begich should gain an additional 37,366 EV and absentee votes to Stevens’ 25, 587. If the challenged votes are found to be all acceptable and are distributed by the ratios of the district the final outcome for all uncounted votes should be about 48,218 Begich to 33,008 Stevens.

    That would give Begich @ 151,553 and Stevens 139,602. That’s a 52%-48% split. Begich will move from 3,257 down to almost 12,000 up.

    I admittedly didn’t do the calculations for the third party AIP candidate for the absentee/early/questioned vote…so their percentages would be involved, as well. But it won’t affect the direction and scale of the above numbers.

  35. fireweednectar: “I’m not impressed by your enthusiasm for a filibuster-proof majority.”

    And I’m not impressed by your disdain for DEMOCRACY. Democracy demands that we count every vote, even if you don’t like the outcome.

  36. Shannyn,
    I hate to always be the voice of opposition, but it falls to me sometimes to challenge your thinking.

    You called me a “Republican Lover”. So I know we don’t always see eye to eye. I guess this go round I was the Republican Loving progressive. I have to say that many people who caucused in February voted in a different way than they caucuses. I know several. I also understand the actuality that many people stayed at home.

    I don’t think you are wrong to look into these allegations–voter fraud–but my guess is there will be no proof, because there is not cause.

    We shall see though.

  37. Shannon would be in a high five frenzy if there where 20 thousand fewer votes and Begich was on top.

    She only smells a corpse when her candidate is passing on.

    So, lets put our big girl panties on and face reality.

    For about 2 months every Alaskan with an IQ higher than the temperature knew Obama would lose the election up here.

    Even the die hard Alaskan neo-libs were using the line to voters out of state that a vote in Alaska meant nothing in the presidential race but in the lower 48 it was precious.

    That caused all those newly signed up, leg tingling, blueberry Kool-ade quaffin, UAA students to sleep late and smoke early.

    Ok, so why didnt Begich motivate the lemmings? Well lets face it, he’s no Messiah but the polls in that race had the same impact for a different reason.

    It was in the bag man! There was no way he could lose. The daily KOS guaranteed it.

    Bottom line is that repubs who voted for Ted just aren’t as lazy as dems.

    Ted shouldn’t get too confused though. If he pulls this off its only because Alaskans would rather have a convicted republican Senator with experience and no chair than a convicted democrat Mayor without a clue rubber stamping Harry Reid.

    The vote was mainly a calculation that if Ted doesn’t win on appeal (and he probably wont) then we will have another go of it with a strong (not indicted/convicted) candidate against Begich who will obviously run again.

    The big difference will be that instead of just the DNC vomiting cash and slime at the republican candidate the RNC will pony up a couple million to expose Begich’s corruption this time.

    Ok so there is what happened to the turn out.

    At least according to my precise calculations.

    Here is what I know.

    Shannon wont give a rats patoot about checking vote totals if Begich pulls ahead with the remaining ballots to be counted. There wont be any blogs about getting to the bottom of her ginned up mystery.

    This little song and dance is only important if Ted stays on top and that’s where the smell is coming from.

    As a post script Mark should look at Ethans numbers. That’s about as good as he can hope for in a new election unless the GOP puts Cuddy in the race.

  38. Doc
    Doesnt this assume that walk up EV behave like absentee? EV was a considered part of the Obama ground game strategy and democrats demolished reps everywhere in the country in in person EV. But absentees have always trended rep. I am not so sanguine…

  39. Matt: You refer to Ted as a “a convicted republican Senator with experience and no chair.” Didn’t you mean convicted FELON without a clue and no chair? Time for the dog track for Ted, at the very least.

    Toobz. We’ll miss him when he’s gone.

  40. I also thank you for this information. I am working to do my small part to pressure folks to at least compare the number of voters counted in the final tally with the number of people who voted at their polling places (signed off, crossed off lists).

  41. matt: “Ted shouldn’t get too confused though. If he pulls this off its only because Alaskans would rather have a convicted republican Senator with experience and no chair than a convicted democrat Mayor without a clue rubber stamping Harry Reid.”
    uh-huh. too bad there’s no chance of it actually happening. the senate leadership [and even many republican senators] have said there’s no way stevens will actually be able to serve, if he prevails in the election.
    let’s say he does win. the question will then become, would we rather have begich than sarah or whoever else she selects as a 90-day replacement?

  42. clark: cant say that I disagree with you but it really doesnt change my point on what I think the votes for Ted where about.

    Simply a way of kicking the can down the street to change the scene, Begich running against someone else.

    If its a strong enough candidate on the rep. side Begich loses like Ethan. The more I think about it if Sarah doesn’t inject herself then there will probably be 3 or more repubs running against Begich giving him a pretty good shot at winning.

    Halcro and Binkley come to mind. Don’t know who else but I’m sure the possibility of going to the Senate would draw at least one more into the fray.

    Anyone know how you get qualified to be on the ballot in that scenario? Is it a free for all, or do we go through a primary first?

  43. I’m very curious to know where G.M. Drawhorn is getting the results for the early/absentee votes????
    I, too, have been crunching numbers and watching as the Division of Elections updates the ‘uncounted’ ballots spreadsheet. As of this morning, there are about 81,000 outstanding early, absentee and questioned ballots yet to be counted. This brings the total turnout to about 305,000, a much better showing than it appeared on election day, and compares only slightly unfavorably to the 2004 turnout of 314,000.
    I, too, attempted to forecast the result for each district based on the actual votes for Begich and Stevens on election day, multiplying this percentage times the number of actual outstanding votes in that district. Not surprisingly, that method (assuming the uncounted votes go exactly as have the already counted votes) gives each candidate almost the identical number of votes: Begich 40049 to Stevens 41175. But I, too, believe that the uncounted votes will go more heavily toward Begich. If he picks up only a percent or two, he will win.

    Which is why I’d love to know where you find the vote-count for the absentee/early/questioned voters??

  44. here ya go deborah

    http://elect.alaska.net/data/sovc/hd28.pdf

    just change the hd28 to hd1 or up to hd40 if you want to plow through each district.

    Don’t get to excited about the current percents for early voters tilting democrat. There is a much higher rate of military in the absentee votes. The later they come in them higher the rate goes military.

    More military means more republican…..usually.

  45. you should have your agent get a hold of maddow’s people and get back on that TV !


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